Introduction

We’re all part of a league where your co-worker’s wife’s cousin Karen won the league despite never having watched a single game all season. She drafted Todd Gurley II because he had “really cool horns” on his helmet, and Stefon Diggs because she “liked the color purple.” From my 12+ years of experience with this obsessive hobby, I have come to terms with the fact that any matchup comes down to any given Sunday.

The game of fantasy football is ever-evolving. Back then you had to KNOW that Steven Jackson was going to be starting over an aging Marshall Faulk from doing extensive research on depth charts and weekly expert speculations. Today fantasy football is extremely layperson friendly (ie Karen). Here are a few examples how:

• They come out with waiver wire articles after every NFL weekend where they spoon feed you on who to pick up and in what priority.
• The projected scores are becoming more accurate and you can just start the players with the highest projected scores all year and win most of your matchups
• They have a trend on the %OWN of the players which basically means that green is good and red is bad

For the 2017-2018 season, David Johnson, OBJ, Julian Edelman, Aaron Rodgers, and Greg Olsen are just some of the early round draft picks that have decimated teams with their major injuries. So far in 2018-2019 Hunter Henry, Derrius Guice, Marqise Lee, and Jerick McKinnon have been ruled out for the season. A designation for the injured reserve (IR) or ruling them “out” makes your decision as a manager easy as far as roster moves.

Unfortunately, it is not always this straightforward. There are some players that string you along with a big ole “Q” or “P” next to their name for weeks on end. The layperson crosses their fingers that Carson Wentz will play next week. The rehab specialist with good knowledge of healing time frames will have that insider knowledge that should give them an advantage over the competition and ultimately win their fantasy football championship matchup.

HOW TO WIN YOUR FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE

First, let’s all come to an agreement that the best way to win your league is to get to the big dance. And you can’t get to the championship game if you don’t make the playoffs. Always put your team in the best position to win every game and advance in the standings.

• Last year, I lost the first 3 games of the season. I was depressed about it. I made some premature moves that ended up backfiring on me. Instead of giving up on my team, I made moves every week and always put my team in the best position. Long story short, I ended up winning that league. I finished the season at .500 and sneaked in to the playoffs due to having a higher POINTS FOR vs the two other teams with .500 records.

Far too often, I see people give up TOO EARLY in the season to completely eliminate themselves from even making the playoffs. The fear of striking out kept them from playing the game, so they QUIT. Hey, more money for the rest of us.

• Most people that lose games early in the season give up and stop managing their team. They start 0-3 and stop caring and finish 4-10. The mindset is “oh, it was only $20” or “it’ll take too much work to turn this around”

The other thing I also see is that people cling on to their original team because of their emotional investment and are afraid to make some moves mid-season and address their weakest links. This may also be a about pride and they become reluctant to admit when they’ve made a mistake.

• A buddy of mine traded Antonio Brown for Doug Baldwin and Devonta Freeman in a PPR league. He has AJ green and was desperate for an RB1 in a depleted RB pool. Feel what you want to feel about this trade, but I could make the argument that he now has RB1/RB2/WR1/WR1 as opposed to RB2/RB2/WR1/WR1.
• A “losing” mentality would have been “I can’t trade him, I drafted him in the first round” or “I can’t trade him because the Steelers are my favorite team.”
• There are way too many factors to see who won this trade in 2018-2019. I just shared it to illustrate the fact that sometimes game changing moves like that have to be done in order to shake things up because what you’ve been doing hasn’t been working so far. 

The most undervalued concept of managing your team is how you manage your bench. We all have those draft day champions, but the league isn’t won on draft day. It’s won with the adjustments you make throughout the season. Some of you may have had Andrew Luck sitting on your bench last year awaiting the week he finally unloaded 30 points (never happened). For all you know that could be Week 8, and you have already been eliminated from playoff contention. You could have had a RB in that spot that you could have plugged in/out based on the weekly match-ups that could have helped you win a game or two (ie Kenyan Drake).

HOW TO MAKE THE RIGHT MOVES

Winning comes down to a combination of strategic moves and luck. How many games have you lost by decimal points? How many times have your bench players scored more than your starters? These are things that none of us can control. WHAT WE CAN CONTROL IS THE TIMING OF THE MOVES WE MAKE, AND WHY WE MAKE THEM…and that is heavily dependent on INJURIES. This is where your knowledge base as a rehab specialist (PT, OT, DC, AT, MD, etc) gives you a superior advantage over your laypeople opponents.

FOUNDATIONS REVIEW

Below is a general healing timetable. I know we LOOKED at this table many times during school, but I need you to KNOW this table like the back of your hand. No injury is created equal; There are other factors that affect return to play such as size and grade of the tear, location, blood supply, sequelae of immobilization, front office pressures, teams vying for a playoff spot etc. For the sake of this article we will keep it simple. For a more detailed review of the tissue healing and adaptation, check out this article written by a colleague during our residency

Tissue healing time table:

Muscle: 2-4 weeks
Tendon: 4-8 weeks
Bone: 6-8 weeks
Ligaments: 8-10 weeks

For the visual learner, here’s a colorful table:

REAL LIFE EXAMPLES:

Let us consider Alshon Jeffery’s hamstring strains…in pretty much every season he’s played in the NFL. This year let’s say it came back and it’s a Grade 2 strain. Given the chronicity of this injury, you’re thinking there is a mechanics or a loading issue that is not getting addressed. I would try to sell high and get a player who can play consistently this year.

Now lets look at:

Derek Carr’s fibular fracture in 2016                        vs                            JJ Watt’s tibial fracture in 2017

If you were to decide in stashing them vs dumping them consider:

• The demands of the injured tissue – tibia is load bearing while the fibula is not
• The demands of his position- defensive ends have to explode off the line and fight off 320+ lb. linemen while QBs need excellent footwork to maintain their timing and mechanics
• The timetable of return for that player – Due to the tibia’s and positional demands, his return to play could surpass 16-24 weeks (aka out for the season), while a fibular fracture may be around 5-8 weeks
• The player’s value – JJ WATT is an all-pro DE. If his injury kept him out for only a few weeks, you would consider stashing him in IDP leagues. Derek Carr was having a great season, but there were many other serviceable quarterbacks in the waiver wire such as Carson Palmer or Tyrod Taylor. If Derek Carr was going to be out for 5-8 weeks, there’s no point in keeping him on your bench in place of a productive QB or Flex player.

WHAT ARE YOUR INTRALEAGUE MOVES WITH THIS INSIDE PERSPECTIVE?

Case example:

Le’Veon Bell sprained his MCL. It doesn’t take an athlete to know that 1) MCL is important for knee stability during multiplanar movements 2)ligament sprains are really painful. The Steelers will label him “questionable” or “probable” but most of that is for the chess match and preparation of the opposing teams for the next week. If you had Bell on your roster you know you have to bench him for at least 2-4 weeks. If he plays before that you may consider that he will be limited in his snaps or he won’t be playing to his full potential.

Keep Him

If Le’Veon was on your team and you are content, you can keep him. If he comes back in 4 weeks, you can have him back in your lineup and make a strong push for the playoffs or the championship

Trade him

You have been losing/mediocre with Le’Veon and now he is not going to be contributing to your team. His stock went down but teams are going to be interested given that he is one of the best running backs in the league. You can get 2 or 3 quality players for Le’Veon and upgrade multiple positions and start winning now. The danger of this is that you may create a super team when Le’Veon returns and set your opponent up with a really good chance of winning the league. It all depends on your short term vs long term goals.

Waive him

You wouldn’t naturally waive Le’Veon, but you might waive a Latavius Murray. Or if it’s already week 13 and it doesn’t seem like he will be back during the playoffs, waive him and get yourself a player that can be productive

Trade for him

Your layperson opponent can have no clue on when Le’Veon will be back. ESPN reported that he may miss 6 weeks and your opponent is praying. You know better as a rehab specialist. It’s risky, but if there’s a chance you can have a Top 3 running back when you make a push for the playoffs, it might be the best move for you. It’ll depend on how deep your team is and the matchups your traded players will face. As a real life example let’s say you trade Jordan Howard and Golden Tate for Le’Veon Bell. Jordan Howard was going up against Jaguars, Eagles and Rams in the next three weeks and those teams are really stout against the run and you would have likely benched Jordan Howard during those matchups anyways.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE RULE

Concussions defy the healing time frames and are on a case by case basis. You could have a hit as devastating as the one Davante Adams suffered in 2017 and be back the next week, or have a “minor” looking collision that ends up being season/career ending. My best advice to you is to stay up to date on how the player is progressing through the concussion protocol, look at his trends, and weigh out your options. For example, when Sam Bradford was going through his concussion protocol in 2015 he wasn’t exactly playing well before that. It was easy to make the decision to cut him and replace him with a serviceable QB like Philip Rivers or Kirk Cousins. That story may have been different if the player with a concussion was someone you invested in heavily. Also, pay attention to how the player is progressing: If the player already returned to practice then that is good news of return to play sooner than later

CONCLUSION

What makes fantasy football so fun is all the uncertainty that goes along with it. The weekly trash talk from the Karens of the world also keep things very interesting. The biggest benefit I have found from this digital sport is that it makes watching football games fun again. I grew up just watching one or two games a weekend because one was my favorite team and the other whatever was on Monday Night Football. Now I can find myself invested in teams that I never cared about before like watching the whole Dolphins vs Browns game because I have Duke Johnson Jr. and the Dolphins defense on my fantasy team. The pot payout may not be always be worth the time you’ve invested into it, but the bragging rights and fleeting feeling of superiority over your peers is priceless.

Thank you so much for taking the time to read this blog.  I like to keep it fresh and write about unique topics that haven’t been covered before. Feel free to check out my other blogs, and if you like them hit the subscribe button and follow me on other social media outlets. Have a good rest of your day!

-Fred